Saturday’s contest at Humphrey Coliseum has the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-1, 2-0 SEC) going head-to-head against the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats (12-3, 1-1 SEC) at 8:30 PM (on January 11). Our computer prediction projects a 80-77 win for Mississippi State, who is a small favorite based on our model.

Based on our computer prediction, Kentucky is a good bet to cover the point spread, which currently sits at 4.5. The two teams are projected to come in below the 161.5 total.

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Starkville, Mississippi
• Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
• Line: Mississippi State -4.5
• Point total: 161.5
• Moneyline (to win): Mississippi State -184, Kentucky +152

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Mississippi State 80, Kentucky 77

Spread & Total Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

• Pick ATS: Kentucky (+4.5)
• Pick OU: Under (161.5)

Mississippi State is 9-6-0 against the spread this season compared to Kentucky’s 7-8-0 ATS record. The Bulldogs are 7-8-0 and the Wildcats are 8-7-0 in terms of going over the point total. The teams score 172.3 points per game, 10.8 more points than this matchup’s total. Mississippi State is 6-4 against the spread and 9-1 overall in its past 10 games, while Kentucky has gone 3-7 against the spread and 7-3 overall.

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Mississippi State Performance Insights

• The Bulldogs are outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game with a +254 scoring differential overall. They put up 83.5 points per game (28th in college basketball) and give up 66.5 per outing (61st in college basketball).
• Mississippi State wins the rebound battle by 5.9 boards on average. It collects 37.1 rebounds per game, which ranks 23rd in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 31.2 per contest.
• Mississippi State knocks down 8.7 three-pointers per game (99th in college basketball), 1.4 more than its opponents (7.3).
• The Bulldogs rank 30th in college basketball with 105.1 points scored per 100 possessions, and 34th in college basketball defensively with 83.8 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• Mississippi State has committed 4.7 fewer turnovers per game than its opponents, averaging 9.2 (15th in college basketball action) while forcing 13.9 (49th in college basketball).

Kentucky Performance Insights

• The Wildcats’ +223 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 14.9 points per game) is a result of putting up 88.8 points per game (third in college basketball) while giving up 73.9 per contest (249th in college basketball).
• Kentucky ranks 26th in the nation at 36.7 rebounds per game. That’s 3.6 more than the 33.1 its opponents average.
• Kentucky makes 2.3 more threes per game than the opposition, 9.8 (40th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 7.5.
• Kentucky has committed 9.0 turnovers per game (seventh in college basketball), 1.7 fewer than the 10.7 it forces (282nd in college basketball).

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